Another Poll Shows GOP Gaining Again; the Dead Fish Wrapper Ignores It

Yet another poll was released Sunday that showed an increase in support for Republican candidates. According to a survey by the Pew Research Center,

A nationwide Pew Research Center survey finds voting intentions shifting in the direction of Republican congressional candidates in the final days of the 2006 midterm campaign. The new survey finds a growing percentage of likely voters saying they will vote for GOP candidates. However, the Democrats still hold a 48% to 40% lead among registered voters, and a modest lead of 47%-43% among likely voters.

So in other words, the Democrats' lead in this area has been trimmed in the past month from 23 points, to 13, and now to 7 points.

The article continues:

The narrowing of the Democratic lead raises questions about whether the party will win a large enough share of the popular vote to recapture control of the House of Representatives. The relationship between a party's share of the popular vote and the number of seats it wins is less certain than it once was, in large part because of the increasing prevalence of safe seat redistricting. As a result, forecasting seat gains from national surveys has become more difficult.

In addition, the article directly refutes what the liberal MSM has been trying to tell us for so long; namely that conservative voters were so disenchanted they were going to stay home:

Republican gains in the new poll reflect a number of late-breaking trends. First, Republicans have become more engaged and enthused in the election than they had been in September and October. While Democrats continue to express greater enthusiasm about voting than do Republicans, as many Republican voters (64%) as Democratic voters (62%) now say they are giving quite a lot of thought to the election. About a month ago, Democratic voters were considerably more likely than GOP voters to say they were giving a lot of thought to the election (by 59%-50%). As a result, Republicans now register a greater likelihood of voting than do Democrats, as is typical in mid-term elections.

And farther on:

For months, Democrats have expressed more interest in the election and enthusiasm about voting than have Republicans. The 'enthusiasm gap' was dramatic in Pew surveys in early October (18 points) and late October (17 points).

These differences have narrowed considerably. About half of Democratic voters (51%) say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, little change from Pew's two previous surveys. By contrast, 42% of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic about voting; that is fewer than the percentage of Democrats more enthused about going to vote, but 10 points higher than just a few weeks ago.

Moreover, Republicans have gained ground in recent weeks on measures aimed at assessing a voter's likelihood of voting. So while Pew polls in early October and mid-October showed virtually no change in the Democratic advantage between all voters and those most likely to turn out, the current survey shows the Democrats' eight-point lead among all registered voters narrowing considerably among likely voters. In this regard, the current campaign more closely resembles previous midterm elections since 1994, when Republicans also fared better among likely voters than among all registered voters.

And finally, on one interesting note raised here earlier this week:

n addition, Sen. John Kerry's "botched joke" about the war in Iraq attracted enormous attention. Fully 84% of voters say they have heard a lot or a little about Kerry's remarks ­ with 60% saying they have heard a lot. By comparison, just 26% say they have heard a lot about President Bush's statement that he will keep Donald Rumsfeld as secretary of defense until he leaves office in 2009. Most voters say Kerry's statement is not a serious consideration in their vote, but 18% of independent voters say it did raise serious doubts about voting for a Democratic candidate.

And yet, the DFW didn't think it was worth more than a couple of small, back page headlines.

Read the entire summary here.

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